INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
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Markets · Mechanisms · Order · 2026
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重新开始/July 16, 2026 /Valuation & Cycles /

Oversubscribed by 30 Billion, You Didn't Buy a Leader — You Bought the Top of a Cycle!

Oversubscribed by 30 Billion, You Didn't Buy a Leader — You Bought the Top of a Cycle!
When a cyclical's earnings curve spikes to its peak, the valuation looks cheapest and the story sounds fullest — while on the vertical axis the risk-reward has flipped: the upside is already realized, the downside just opening. The oversubscription premium lands exactly here.

Oversubscribed by 30 billion, what you bought wasn't a leader — it was the most expensive moment of this entire cycle.

Today, A-shares' largest IPO in nearly 19 years opened for subscription: ChangXin Technology, priced at 8.66 yuan, an offering valuation approaching 580 billion yuan, an expected raise of about 579 billion — nearly 30 billion over plan — with a marquee roster of strategic investors. The earnings are a report card almost too bright to look at: Q1 revenue of 50.8 billion, up 719% year-over-year, net profit of 24.7 billion, swinging from last year's loss straight into the black. Every headline shouts the same line: a domestic memory giant arrives, an AI-driven upcycle, ample earnings elasticity, a subscription feast. And that near-30-billion oversubscription gets read, naturally, as evidence: the market loves it so much that even what the company asked for wasn't enough — they stuffed another 30 billion in.

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