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The Catch-Up Rally Is an Ending, Not a Beginning!

"Hard tech has peaked; the AI-application catch-up rally may be starting" — the market treats rotation as a relay race, as if capital passing between sectors were value being passed along. But a catch-up rally is not new computing power discovering new value. It is the same stock of liquidity making its final handoff at the end of the chain. What it fills was never a value trough — it is a sentiment trough; and the moment every trough is filled, the market has nothing left to compute but "who hasn't gone up yet."

Jul 07, 2026Read article →

The Catch-Up Rally Is an Ending, Not a Beginning!

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Supercycles Are Most Dangerous When Most Certain!

Morgan Stanley raises memory price targets, the NAND supercycle is proclaimed everywhere, and institutions have written 2027 growth rates into their models. But the most dangerous moment for a cyclical stock is precisely when everyone can compute its next two years. Maximum visibility is not a buy signal — it is a sell signal, because certainty was never a margin of safety. It is an illusion amplified link by link along the supply chain.

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High Valuations Do Not Crush Markets!

The fashionable line on Wall Street: the S&P 500's Shiller P/E has reached 41, above its pre-Depression level, therefore a crash is imminent. This mistakes a static number for a countdown clock. High valuation has never crushed a market by itself — it tells you whether things are expensive, never when they fall. What topples a bubble is never that prices got too high. It is that the money ran out.

Jul 07, 2026