INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
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The Critical Point
Markets · Mechanisms · Order · 2026
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重新开始/July 18, 2026 /Liquidity & Credit /

The Fed Never Promised You a Cut — Your Valuation Needs One!

The Fed Never Promised You a Cut — Your Valuation Needs One!
The market thinks it is forecasting the central bank. It is actually shopping for a premise its own valuations require. When the central bank's own median points the other way, the loop runs out of fuel.

An expectation of rate cuts is not a forecast about the Fed. It is a requirement of asset prices.

Put two numbers side by side. On June 17, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. The midpoint of that range is 3.625%. In the Summary of Economic Projections released the same day, the median participant projection for end-2026 was 3.8%.

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